6th

By Mason Adams
Roanoke Times
Tuesday, September 08, 2009

The party in control of the House of Delegates will play a key role in drawing state and congressional district lines after the 2010 census.

Labor Day signals the launch of campaign season, when local House of Delegates races that have quietly simmered through the summer emerge for the final sprint to Election Day.

This year, Western Virginia voters will see plenty of options, as there are major-party or independent challengers in nearly every district.

But just because Democrats and Republicans have a candidate in most districts, that doesn't mean they'll all receive financial support. With the national recession, fundraising is down and each party's House caucus has only a limited pool of money with which to support candidates.

But while money is down, the stakes are higher than usual: The party that controls the House after this fall's elections will play a key role in drawing state and congressional district lines after the 2010 census.

House Republicans hold 53 seats and two independents caucus with them. Democrats need to win five new seats for parity and six for a majority.

While party leaders will always watch for "sleeper" candidates who outperform expectations, they're focused largely on a small selection of races that will offer them the most bang for their buck. Most of those are open seats or those that offer challengers a demographic advantage.

Periodic campaign finance reports can offer some insight. Although money doesn't always translate to votes, the reports give a snapshot that shows how much help a candidate is receiving from supporters, business interests and his or her party. The next reports are due Sept. 15.

As of Labor Day, it looks like bull's-eyes have been placed on an open seat in a suburban Roanoke Valley district; two New River Valley districts with Republican incumbents; and districts in Lynchburg and Danville currently represented by a Democrat and a Republican, respectively.

The 17th District is currently the biggest focus for both Democrats and Republicans in Western Virginia. The seat became open when Del. William Fralin, R-Roanoke, unexpectedly announced his retirement at the end of this year's General Assembly session.

The 17th went heavily for John McCain in last year's presidential race, but it was much closer in the past two elections for governor.

The Republican nominee, Botetourt County lawyer Bill Cleaveland, beat four other candidates in a June primary. Since then, he's based his campaign largely upon his 30 years of experience as a prosecutor, defense attorney and substitute judge.

The Democratic nominee, Roanoke City Councilwoman Gwen Mason, jumped in the race early and has done well raising money. She has been hampered, however, by her membership on a local governing body whose members often seem at odds with one another.

House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong, D-Henry County, touted Mason as a candidate with good name recognition who already has a "good campaign on the ground."

Armstrong's Republican counterpart, House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, agreed that Mason is running an aggressive campaign, but thinks that in the end voters will favor Cleaveland's "leadership style" over Mason's.

The 7th District features a rematch of a 2007 campaign, with Democrat Peggy Frank, an assistant commonwealth's attorney in Pulaski County, again challenging incumbent Republican Dave Nutter of Christiansburg.

Armstrong said that Frank received almost no caucus support in 2007 yet still managed to come within four points of Nutter on Election Day. Through June 30, the caucus already had given $25,700 to Frank, helping her to outraise Nutter for the filing period. Armstrong said the caucus has yet to make its final decisions on which races to support, but Frank is under close consideration.

Griffith had a harsher assessment of Frank's chances: "I just don't see it happening."

The 6th District pits retired Pulaski County dentist Carole Pratt against four-year incumbent Anne Crockett-Stark, R-Wytheville.

Democrats hope that voters will go with Pratt based on economic issues, particularly in a year where the recession will likely lead many to vote based on their wallets.

"The most salient thing down there is the unemployment rate is high, the economy is off," Armstrong said. "Yet Annie B. [Crockett-Stark] won't do anything to spur economic development."

Pratt's early fundraising was strong: By the end of the most recent filing cycle, Pratt had about twice as much money on hand as Crockett-Stark.

But Griffith said that Democrats have again miscalculated.

Both Crockett-Stark and Nutter "have worked hard in their districts. They work very hard for their people and they're not just one-dimensional," Griffith said.

The 14th and 23rd districts offer races where Democrats and Republicans, respectively, believe they have a chance to turn out the incumbents.

The 14th District has leaned Democratic in national races, but Republican incumbent Danny Marshall of Danville has managed to retain his seat, even against a well-funded challenger two years ago. Democrats hope for another shot this year with former Danville Mayor Seward Anderson, giving him nearly $35,000 through June 30.

Meanwhile, Republicans are hoping to reclaim Democrat incumbent Shannon Valentine's seat in the 23rd District. Valentine, of Lynchburg, won a special election for the seat in January 2006 after Gov. Tim Kaine named Republican Preston Bryant -- who had held the seat for 10 years -- to a Cabinet post.

Lynchburg City Councilman Scott Garrett, who won the Republican nomination over a fellow council member, will likely receive substantial party support in a district that GOP leaders would like to win back.

http://www.roanoke.com/news/roanoke/wb/218119